Pirates Vs. Phillies

MLB Betting Preview: Phillies (-137) Heavy Favorites Over Pirates (+116)

Game Info: Saturday, July 20, 2024, 6:40 AM EST (Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)

Betting Odds

With moneyline odds of -137—that is a 57. 8 percent chance of winning—the Philadelphia Phillies are the clear favorites according to sportsbooks. There is an implied win probability of 46. 3% for the Pittsburgh Pirates, the underdog based on their moneyline of +116. It is not yet known what the total run line is.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates (38-59) are in the midst of a rebuild, putting an emphasis on nurturing young players in order to build on their success in the future. The Pirates have shown signs of promise despite their difficulties particularly from their developing young core. With a .284 batting average and a league-high 15 stolen bases, rookie outfielder Bryan Reynolds is still impressing for the team. Roansy Contreras, a rookie pitcher with a respectable 3.82 ERA in 12 starts has also been a bright spot.

The Pirates are still a team with clear shortcomings, though. Their pitching staff lacks a true ace, and they struggle to rank in the lower half of the league in the majority of offensive categories. The Pirates remarkably inconsistent play is evident in the fact that they have only won 17 of their 47 away games this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

Currently sitting just 2. 5 games behind the division-leading New York Mets, the Philadelphia Phillies (59-40) are deep in the thick of the NL East race. The Phillies have a well-balanced offense led by Rhys Hoskins’ on-base skills and Bryce Harper’s incredible power. Aaron Nola is a real contender for the Cy Young Award and Zach Wheeler is a steady presence at the top of the rotation. The pitching staff has been a pleasant surprise.

This season, the Phillies have performed admirably at home, amassing a commanding 35-22 record at Citizens Bank Park. Jean Segura’s return to full health adds another element to their already formidable offensive attack. The Phillies have a fantastic chance to close the gap in the division race when they play the humble Pirates.

Matchup/League Facts

When it comes to current standings and team objectives, this Pirates vs. Phillies game presents a sharp contrast. The rebuilding Pirates will be greatly favored against the Phillies who have their sights set on a World Series championship. But the Pirates have displayed glimmers of rivalry especially when playing non-contenders.

Watching Nola take the mound for the Phillies against Reynolds the rising star of the Pirates will be crucial. With a league-best 12 strikeouts per nine innings and an impressive 2-point 47 ERA, Nola has been outstanding this season. Reynolds performance against Nola, however, could be crucial to the outcome of the game because he has shown a talent for hitting quality pitches.

The condition of both teams’ bullpens presents another fascinating matchup to consider. While the Pirates bullpen is still largely untested, the Phillies bullpen has occasionally been a source of inconsistency. Later in the game, the team with better relief arm management may find themselves with a sizable advantage.

Beyond these particular games, both teams’ general health will be important. The Phillies have a healthy roster and Segura’s return will help their offense. In contrast, the Pirates have experienced injuries all season long. The performance of their remaining fit players will be critical to their chances in this match.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

With the Pirates at Phillies, the Phillies seem to be the obvious favorites on paper. They can compete with any team because of their exceptional talent and home-field advantage. But the Pirates have proven they can hold their own against stronger opposition and Nola can be exposed if his leadership is lacking.

The pitching matchups mentioned above, and the effectiveness of each teams’ bullpens will probably determine the final score. A comfortable Phillies victory appears likely if Nola plays well and the Phillies bullpen holds firm. But this game might end up being more interesting than expected if the Pirates can get to Nola early and their bullpen plays well.

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 3

Even though the Phillies are the overwhelming favorites, the Pirates could force a close game. Nolas performance and the potency of both teams’ bullpens will probably determine the result.