NFL : Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Odds & Prediction

Game Info: January 5, 2024 1:00PM EST @ Gillette Arena

The Bills are currently powered by a wave of momentum, completing thumping victory over the Jets to join an exhilarating high-scoring win over the Lions. In stark contrast, the Patriots have been floundering in their previous matches, climaxing with a complete rout at the hands of the Chargers. This match brings us two teams whose fortunes are diverging wildly, setting the stage for an intense contest. Let’s go into the latest betting odds, team form, and predictions for the scrum.

Betting Odds and Info

These are the latest odds as of writing:

Moneyline: Bills 1.71 , Patriots 2.20

Spread: Bills -2.5 , Patriots +2.5

Over/Under: 38

Team Recent Performance

Buffalo Bills

On December 30, they thrashed the Jets 14 to 40, easily beating a 10-point spread and going over the 44-point total. They nipped the Patriots 24-21 on December 23 but failed to cover as 14-point favorites, with an under result against a 48-point total. A shootout on December 16, 48-42, against the Lions saw them cover as 2.5-point underdogs and over a 55.5-point total. Prior to this, they went down narrowly to the Rams on December 9, 42-44, failing to cover the spread of 3.5 points but hitting the total at 49.5. Earlier on December 2, they had blasted the 49ers 35-10, covering a 6.5-point spread while staying under a 45.5-point total.

New England Patriots

They were 6-point underdogs and went on to lose 7-40 to the Chargers on December 29, hitting the above-under on a total of 41.5 points. They had lost to the Chargers earlier, on December 23, when they narrowly lost 21-24 to the Bills but covered as a 14-point underdog and stayed below a total of 48 points. Defeated on December 16 by a score of 17-30 against the Cardinals, they were unable to cover the 6-point spread, although it was already over the total of 46.5 points. Earlier, on December 2, they lost 24-25 to the Colts but covered that spread as 2.5-point underdogs and hit the over on the total of 41 points. Finally, they collapsed from 15-34 to the Dolphins on November 25 as 7.5-point underdogs, the game going over the 45.5 postseason total.

Team Head-to-Head Matchup

There is an 8-2 record for the Buffalo Bills and a 2-8 record concerning the New England Patriots. Both teams are 5-5 against the spread (ATS) and identical over/under records: 6-3-1. The Bills score an average 28.7 points per game against the Patriots’ 18.6. By the ground, Buffalo averages 130.9 rushing yards to the invading 128.5 yardage of New England. Buffalo’s passing game shows an edge with 32.4 pass attempts per game, a 63.58% completion rate, and 227 passing yards, compared to New England’s 28.7 attempts, 60.98% completion rate, and 171.9 passing yards. By adding together all the yards, total overall amounts to 357.9 yards per game by the Bills while the Patriots managed to secure just 300.4. Buffalo also has fewer turnovers per game, returning an average of 1.0 compared to New England’s 1.7.

Team Injuries Update

Buffalo Bills

Curtis Samuel (WR, ribs) is out. Cam Lewis (DB, shoulder), Taylor Rapp (S, neck), Casey Toohill (DE, ribs), Damar Hamlin (S, back), and Baylon Spector (LB, calf) are all questionable.

New England Patriots

Jabrill Peppers (S, hamstring), Jahlani Tavai (LB, groin), Sione Takitaki (LB, groin), Anfernee Jennings (LB, knee), Alex Austin (CB, ankle), Titus Leo (LB, ankle), Caedan Wallace (OL, ankle), and Curtis Jacobs (LB, concussion) are all questionable. Marcus Jones (CB, hip), Ben Brown (C, concussion), and Jaquelin Roy (DT, foot) are ruled out.

SPORTBOOK.AG’s Prediction

The Buffalo Bills will win and cover the spread with the total staying under 38.

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