MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers Odds & Prediction

Game Info: Philadelphia Phillies (80-59) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (86-54), September 4, 2025, Thursday, 4:10 p.m. ET, American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI 

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Brewers -130 | Phillies +109

Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (+163) | Phillies +1.5 (-198)

Total Runs: 7.5 (Over -122 | Under +102)

Phillies Betting Preview

Philadelphia comes into this game as a bit of an underdog, but they’ve been pretty steady throughout the season. Ranger Suárez (10-6, 3.02 ERA) is on the mound, and he’s been one of the more overlooked pitchers in the NL. He’s coming off a solid run and has given up only 1 earned run over his last two outings combined. The Phillies’ bullpen is currently ranked 23rd in MLB, but they’ve been getting better in August.

The Phillies’ offense is really on fire right now. Trea Turner is a key player, hitting .302. Bryce Harper has hit 2 home runs in his last 10 games. The Phillies are sitting at 3rd in team batting average with .257 and 10th in home runs. They’ve scored 649 runs this season, putting them 10th in the league.

Brewers Betting Preview

Milwaukee is putting Freddy Peralta (16-5, 2.58 ERA) on the mound, and he’s been on a roll. He’s given up only one earned run in his last 18 innings, and opponents are hitting just .192 against him. This season, Peralta has tallied 12 quality starts and is currently riding a streak of four games without allowing an earned run.

The Brewers’ offense is led by Christian Yelich (27 HR, 92 RBI) and William Contreras (.260 AVG, 17 HR), both of whom have been dependable players. Milwaukee is currently in second place in MLB for runs per game (5.1) and has the second-best team ERA (3.66), making them one of the most balanced teams in baseball.

Matchup/League Facts

The Brewers have a solid record of 50-27 as favorites this season, which translates to a winning percentage of 64.9%.

Conversely, the Phillies sit at 11-15 when they’re the underdogs, but they’ve managed to go 8-8 when the odds are +109 or worse.

Milwaukee has exceeded the total in 7 of their last 10 matchups.

Both teams rank in the top 10 for batting average and strikeouts per nine innings.

Phillies at Brewers Prediction

This matchup between the Phillies and Brewers is a classic showdown featuring strong pitchers and lineups ready for the playoffs. Peralta has been on a roll, giving the Brewers a bit of an advantage since they’re at home. Still, the Phillies’ bullpen and their explosive offense make them a team to watch in this game.

I think we’re in for a close, low-scoring game at first, but I expect the runs to start coming in during the middle innings. With the total at 7.5, it seems a bit low considering how both teams have been playing offensively recently.

Sportbook.AG Final Prediction: Pick: Brewers ML (-130) Lean: Over 7.5 Runs Score Prediction: Brewers 4, Phillies 3

This game could go either way, but the Brewers’ steady performance at home and Peralta’s current form gives them the edge.