Derby Watch: Journalism Leads a Talented Field with Sovereignty, Sandman, and International Threats Lurking

Race Info: May 3, 2025 6:57 ET @ Churchill Downs

Livestream: NBC

Welcome to our Derby Day preview, where top contenders and dark horses line up for a shot at racing glory. Leading the charge is Journalism, a turf star with a lethal closing kick, but challengers like Sovereignty and Sandman are poised to strike. With international talent and legendary trainers in the mix, this field promises high drama and big surprises.

Top Contenders:

Post 8    Journalism (3-1)

• Trainer: Michael McCarthy – Looking for a top miler with an amazing closing kick? Then look no further than McCarthy. His barn focuses on grounding out wins where others falter in the closing stages of the race.
• Jockey: Umberto Rispoli – the top turf rider in the game, is known for his patience and his timing.
• Notes: The morning line favorite is likely to either have strong recent efforts to lean on or a pedigree to die for. Anything McCarthy trains with Rispoli riding usually runs well up and down the California-New York circuit, especially at Santa Anita and Del Mar.

Post 18  Sovereignty (5-1)

• Trainer: Bill Mott – a Hall of Famer, has developed late-running stars like Cigar and Drosselmeyer.
• Jockey: Jose Alvarado – a guy well trusted by Mott on the emerging talent.
• Notes: “He’s learning with every start. If he gets the right trip, he could come flying late.” – McCarthy

Post 17  Sandman (6-1)

• Trainer: Mark Casse – winner of 2019 Preakness, elite usually with closers.
• Jockey: Jose Ortiz – derby-winning rider in 2017 for Always Dreaming.
• Notes: Stone-cold closer-needs chaos up front but is a one-mile cakewalk. Sharp money says that Sandman arises on Derby Day. Do you believe the plunge?

Mid-tier Chances:

Post 7   Luxor Cafe (15-1)

• Trainer: Noriyuki Hori – an elite Japanese conditioner. He trained Chuwa Wizard (2nd in 2021 Breeders’ Cup Marathon)
• Jockey: Joao Moreira (Brazilian superstar, “Magic Man” with 1,300+ int’l wins)
• Notes: Presses- Stalks mid-pack, avoids traffic, then pounces.

Post 9   Burnham Square (12-1)

• Trainer: Ian Wilkes – a Protégé of Hall of Famer Carl Nafzger, trained Fort Larned to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic
• Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. – a 2022 Derby-winning jockey with Rich Strike, exceptional on the grounds of Churchill Downs
• Notes: Stalker- Sits just off the pace, avoiding trouble.

Post 21  Baeza (12-1)

• Trainer: John Shirreffs – a Legendary patience; trained Zenyatta and Giacomo (2005 Derby shocker at 50-1)
• Jockey: Flavien Prat – Derby-winning rider with Country House, elite at judging pace
• Notes: Deep Closer – Prat’s specialty (see: 2019 Derby DQ)

Longshots (20-1 more):

Though their chances of succeeding are almost nil, the following have some famous trainers behind them:

Post 1   Citizen Bull (20-1)

•  Trained by Bob Baffert (a multiple Kentucky Derby winner); Martin Garcia has ridden several top runners from Baffert.

Post 12 East Avenue (20-1)

• Trainer Brendan Walsh is full of surprises, while Manny Franco is a competent rider on the NY circuit.

Post 14 Tiztastic (20-1)

• The horse is from the barn of Steve Asmussen, who has two entries here; it will be partnered with accomplished Joel Rosario.

Post 13 Publisher (30-1)

• More Asmussen; Irad Ortiz could bring him forward.

Post 3 Final Gambit (30-1)

• A Brad Cox horse; Luan Machado is less known but deserves respect for Cox’s runners.

Extreme Longshots (30-1):

These are the lowlongshots with lesser-credentialed trainers or limited records: 

Post 2   Neoequos

Post 5   American Promise

Post 6   Admire Daytona

Post 11 Flying Mohawk

Post 15 Render Judgement

Post 16 Coal Battle

Post 19 Chunk of Gold

Post 20 Owen Almighty

Many of these have modest connections or jockeys unlikely to get major mounts unless the horse is special.