The 2022 NBA Finals are down to a best-of-three between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors after the Warriors shocked the Boston crowd with a Game 4 win on Friday night. Golden State has now won a road game in 27 consecutive playoff series, an NBA record. Can the Warriors take their first lead of the series with a home win in Game 5?
Just when it looked like the Celtics were ready to take control of this series with a 3-1 lead, the Warriors reminded us that this is their sixth trip to the NBA Finals since 2015. Boston took a 94-90 lead with 5:18 to play in Game 4, but that’s when the Warriors went on a 17-3 run to end the game and win 107-97. Every game in this series has been decided by at least 10 points with fourth-quarter runaways being very popular for the winner.
Steph Curry put together one of his greatest playoff games with 43 points and 10 rebounds just two days after injuring his foot late in Game 3. His teammates did not provide a ton of help as they shot 40% from the field and Draymond Green (two points) was benched at crucial moments of the game, the kind of move only a veteran coach like Steve Kerr can pull off. But Andrew Wiggins had a career-high 16 rebounds as the Warriors were dominant on the boards with a 55-42 edge after getting embarrassed in that area in Game 3.
Boston’s Jayson Tatum had 16 points in the first half but was ice cold in the second half on his way to scoring 23 points on 23 shots. Boston was just 7-of-21 (33.3%) from the field in the fourth quarter.
If the Warriors go on to win this series, then that 17-3 run should go down as the turning point. Boston blew a golden opportunity in a game where it shot 10-of-13 on wide-open threes according to NBA.com. In contrast, Golden State was just 3-of-17 on wide-open threes on Friday night. If that regresses towards the mean for both teams, then the Celtics could be staring at another blowout in Golden State on Monday night.
Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Matchup Info
- Matchup: Atlantic vs. Pacific
- Date: Monday, June 13, 2022
- Venue: Chase Center
- Location: San Francisco, CA
- TV-Time: ABC – 9:00 p.m. ET
Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Game 5 Analysis and Prediction
Boston Celtics Betting Analysis
- SU: 65-39
- ATS: 58-44-2
- O/U: 50-52-2
Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis
- SU: 66-35
- ATS: 52-46-4
- O/U: 47-53-2
The Warriors are a 4-point home favorite in Game 5, which has been the model for the home team spread in this series. Including playoff games, Boston (53) and Golden State (52) lead the NBA in wins by double digits this season, so it has not been surprising to see every game decided by a comfortable margin even if it took a wild run in the fourth quarter to get there. But Game 4 was easily the tightest game yet in the series with 11 lead changes and 10 ties.
The total for this game is 211.5 points, which is a couple points lower than the number for the first four games that stayed around 214 points. But the defensive intensity has picked up in this series, and it is between the top two teams in Defensive Rating this season. The over only hits 42% of the time in games played in Golden State this season.
This is the fifth NBA Finals in history where each of the first four games were decided by at least 10 points. All four of the previous series lasted seven games, but three of the four had a double-digit win in Game 5 too. This series is begging for a closer game at the end, and this might be the one that delivers if the Warriors are going to rely so heavily on Steph Curry to make incredible shots.
Curry’s consistency in this series is driving the Warriors while the Celtics are only getting 34.1% shooting from Tatum. But Tatum’s big assist numbers in the two wins show that if the supporting cast can deliver, especially in the fourth quarter, then the Celtics have what it takes to win this series.
Boston is 7-0 SU after a loss this postseason, and the Celtics have not failed to cover the spread in consecutive games since April 1. Boston still leads the NBA in the highest cover rate this season for playoff games (63.6%) and road games (66.7%), and the second-highest cover rate as an underdog (64.3%).
The Celtics have lost the third quarter in all four games this series, their worst streak this season. But they cut that margin to its smallest yet (six points) in Game 4, and this needs to be another bounce-back game for the duo of Tatum and Jaylen Brown. With the way Boston has continued to bounce back and excel on the road, this feels like a sneaky spot for the team to pull off another upset. At the very least, let’s go with Boston to cover the spread.
While the over is 12-8 in Golden State’s playoff games, that had a lot to do with a high-scoring start to the Denver series in the first round. Since Game 5 of that series, the over is 8-8 for the Warriors. More importantly, the team’s games have followed an up-and-down rollercoaster pattern since that point.
Every game in the Memphis series in the second round alternated between the over and under hitting. The same thing happened in the Dallas series until the final two games both went over. The first four games against Boston have again alternated with Games 1 and 3 going over and Games 2 and 4 going under.
These teams are a combined 13-0 after a loss this postseason, so it makes sense that they would fluctuate from night to night. Bad performances are made up for immediately with strong performances, which usually means shots are being made and points are being scored. The total for this game is fairly low at 211.5 points, and the Celtics are going to need bigger scoring nights out of Tatum and Brown as they combined for just 44 points in Game 4. We also know the Warriors need to see more baskets go in for Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole. Steph Curry cannot be expected to score 35 or 40-plus points every night going forward.
After both teams shot under 45% in Game 4, look for the offenses to pick up and for Game 5 to go over the total.
So if a team responds well after a loss at home in this playoffs that is Boston Celtics. We believe they will strike back today as this guys doesn’t care if they play home or on the road.
Boston Celtics +4 and Over 211.5