NFL: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins Odds and Prediction

Game Info: Monday, September 29, 2025, 7:15 PM ET, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Betting Odds

Typically, the Dolphins are favored by -2.5 when they play at home, and their moneyline is around -155. On the other hand, the Jets sit at +130 if they can pull off an unexpected victory. The total is set at 45.5, leaning a bit towards the over since both teams scored a combined 56 points last week.

Jets Betting Preview

The Jets just went through a tough 29-27 defeat against Tampa Bay, where backup QB Tyrod Taylor almost pulled off a comeback in the fourth quarter. However, there’s some good news for Gang Green bettors: Justin Fields has passed concussion protocol and is set to start. Fields adds a dynamic flair to the offense, and his connection with Garrett Wilson (21 catches, 229 yards, 2 TDs) has been the only shining moment.

New York has a record of 2-1 ATS this season, managing to cover as a +3 underdog in Week 1 and a +6.5 underdog in Week 3. They’ve also gone 2-1 on the over/under, with two out of their three games going over the total. Their defensive squad has taken more hits from injuries, like LB Quincy Williams, who’s now on injured reserve due to a shoulder issue and will be out for at least four games. Plus, CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr., who was recently picked up by the Jets, is also out with an ankle injury.

Dolphins Betting Preview

Miami’s defense has really been a challenge, giving up an average of 32.3 points per game, making it the worst in the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 5 touchdown passes, but he’s also had 4 interceptions over three games. Even though he’s completed almost 70% of his passes (69.7%), the offense hasn’t quite found its rhythm yet. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are still strong players, but they’ve been a bit restricted recently, totaling just 88 receiving yards in Week 3.

The Dolphins are sitting at 1-2 ATS this season, and they haven’t been able to cover in the one game where they were favored by 2.5 points or more. So far, Miami’s games have gone over the total in 2 out of 3 matchups this season. On top of that, the Dolphins have an impressive streak of 9 straight wins when they’re favored at home against the Jets. Tua Tagovailoa has a flawless 6-0 record in his career against the New York Jets. In their last five meetings, Miami has won 4 times, outscoring the Jets 127-77.

Matchup & League Trends

The Dolphins have a slight edge over the Jets in their historical matchups, with a record of 61–57–1.

The Jets haven’t won in Miami since 2014.

Both teams are averaging 41.7 points per game combined (Jets 23.0 PPG, Dolphins 18.7 PPG), which is below the current over/under line of 44.5 for their Week 4 matchup.

Opponents are scoring a total of 63.3 points per game against these defenses (Jets 31.0 PPG allowed, Dolphins 32.3 PPG allowed), which is much higher than the established total of 44.5.

Jets at Dolphins Prediction

This matchup between the Jets and Dolphins presents a solid chance for bettors to “buy low” if they believe a regression is on the horizon. Both teams are still in search of their first victory, but the Jets have displayed more determination and boast a better ATS record. Fields coming back is a plus, but you can’t overlook Miami’s speed and the edge of playing at home, plus Tua’s flawless record against New York.

Sportbook.AG Final Prediction: Final Pick: Dolphins -2.5 Score Prediction: Dolphins 24, Jets 20

Lean toward the over if you trust both defenses to keep struggling.