MLB: Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox Odds & Prediction

Game Info: Friday, August 15, 2025, 4:10 PM ET, Fenway Park, Boston, MA

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Red Sox: -168 | Marlins: +140

Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+121)

Total (Over/Under 9 Runs): Over: -101 | Under: -119

Boston is likely to win with about a 62.7% chance, while Miami’s odds sit at around 41.7%. Overall, it looks like we can expect a game with a good amount of scoring.

Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins head into this matchup with a record of 58–63, recently pulling off a strong 13–4 win against Cleveland. Still, their overall play has been a bit shaky, as they’ve dropped eight of their last eleven games. Sandy Alcantara (6–11, 6.55 ERA) is taking the mound, and while he has shown flashes of greatness, he often has trouble keeping that up. The offense is led by Kyle Stowers (25 HR, 72 RBI) and Xavier Edwards (.303 AVG), but sadly, the team ranks 18th in runs scored and 24th in home runs.

The Marlins have really struggled as underdogs, only winning 15 out of 32 games when the odds are +142 or more. Recently, their record against the spread stands at 4–6, and they’ve exceeded the total in six of their last ten games.

Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox, with a record of 66–56, are looking to bounce back after dropping two of three games to Houston. Lucas Giolito (8–2, 3.77 ERA) is scheduled to take the mound, boasting 11 quality starts and an opponent batting average of .244. Boston’s offense is impressive, ranking third in MLB with 614 runs and fifth in batting average at .254.

Wilyer Abreu (21 HR, 67 RBI) and Trevor Story (75 RBI) are at the forefront of a lineup that’s consistently dangerous. The Red Sox have covered the run line in six of their last ten games and have exceeded the total in eight of those contests.

Matchup/League Facts

The Marlins have successfully covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 games against AL East teams with winning records.

The home team has won the last six games against the Marlins and the Red Sox. In this scenario, the Red Sox are playing at home and have secured wins in the last six encounters in this matchup at Fenway Park.

Boston ranks 10th in the MLB for home runs, hitting 149, while Miami sits at 24th with 117.

In the last nine games for Boston, the total has exceeded the mark eight times, while for Miami, it has gone OVER in six out of their last seven night games after playing the previous day.

Marlins at Red Sox Prediction

This matchup between the Marlins and the Red Sox highlights two teams on diverging paths. Boston’s powerful offense and Giolito’s dependability on the mound give them the upper hand, especially when they’re at home. While Alcantara has the talent to cause an upset, his 6.55 ERA and recent struggles make it hard to back Miami with any confidence.

Sportbook.AG Final Prediction: Score: Red Sox 5, Marlins 4, Best Bet: Over 8.5 Runs, Lean: Red Sox Moneyline (-168)

This game could be closer than the odds suggest, but Boston’s consistency and the advantage of being at home make them the safer pick for this Friday night matchup.