151st Kentucky Derby: The Smartest Bets to Make on Race Day

The 151st Kentucky Derby is set for a thrilling showdown with favorites Journalism, Sandman, and Sovereignty leading a stacked field. Whether you’re backing the morning-line favorite or hunting for longshot value, smart bets could make this your most exciting Derby yet.

How to watch the 151 Kentucky Derby

Date:             May 3, 2025

Time:             6:57 ET

Location:      Churchill Downs | Louisville, Kentucky

Livestream:  NBC

Who to Watch on Derby Day:

Journalism: Trained by Michael McCarthy, this bay colt arrives at the Derby as the morning-line favorite at 3-1 odds. He boasts a four-race winning streak that includes a victory in the Santa Anita Derby and a solid pedigree, along with a record of relatively steady performances.

Sandman: Guided by trainer Mark Casse and riding Jose Ortiz on horseback, Sandman has shot quickly into prominence after an unforgettable victory in the Arkansas Derby. He’s now 6-1 odds and an out-and-out serious player in the contest.

Sovereignty: Trained by legend Bill Mott, a Hall of Fame inductee, won the Fountain of Youth Stakes and came back strong for a second in the Florida Derby. He is one of the favorites to win here at 5-1.

Luxor Cafe: By winning the Hyacinth Stakes, this American Pharoah colt secured his Derby credential. Although bred for shorter turf races, his blistering turn of foot arguably makes him a Derby contender.

Betting Picks and Approaches:

Winning Bet

• Journalism (Post 8, 3-1) – The most straightforward choice to win. Strong connections, turf ability, and an ideal post position into a patient, mid-pack trip. Certainly a good single win or daily double wagers.

Value Pick – Across the Board (Win/Place/Show):

• Sovereignty (Post 18, 5-1) – Improving with every start under Hall of Famer Bill Mott. If he gets a clean trip, he’ll be flying late. Great value if Journalism falters.

As for the longshots:

• Sandman (Post 17, 6-1) – Deeper closer with that Derby feeling. Loves the meltdown if they set a hot pace. Good horse to key underneath in superfectas. 

Exotic Strategy:

• Exacta Box (3 horses): Journalism, Sovereignty, Sandman
• Trifecta Key: Journalism over Sovereignty, Sandman, Luxor Cafe
• Superfecta Saver: 8/17, 18, 7, 9/17, 18, 21

Approach: 

• Focus on the pace dynamics, both Sandman and Sovereignty benefit from a fast early pace.
• Use Journalism as a base for exotics but hedge with closers and outside threats from abroad such as Luxor Cafe for the 2nd and 3rd spots. 
• Avoid throwing lots of money at long shots that you don’t really know about unless you are going for a big hit with a small punch.